Voters have annoyingly short memories. This means that after three years of a crap economy, if the economy were to start picking up again, say, right NOW, the president could see his reelection prospects improve dramatically (he's slightly favored at present, even with the lousy economy).
There's some evidence out there that the economy is, in fact, picking up. Nobody's expecting an election-year boom, but modest-plus growth in jobs and income could put President Obama over the top.
I know, I know--I don't like to think about it either, particularly because I already called my shot on this one, saying that President Obama was done in one. But think about it we must (or, if you're Al Sharpton, "...think about it we much.").
Right now, the two issues that matter most to me are: (1) health care reform; and (2) the deficit and debt. So, those are the ones I'm going to think about.
On health care reform, if the Supreme Court doesn't knock down the law this year, and if the president is reelected, the bulk of the law will stay in place for at least another four years. I believe the president will be willing to negotiate major changes--will be forced to, in fact, by cost overruns, disruptions in the private insurance market, etc. But he's never going to agree to a repeal.
That doesn't mean that it's now or never on repeal, as the GOP candidates keep saying. If, in 2017, there's a GOP president, House, and Senate, and if Obamacare remains unpopular, if it's already way over budget, etc., it's gone. The question conservatives need to ask themselves, though, is how much damage will have been done in the meantime.
On the deficit and debt, if President Obama wins reelection, he's most likely going to be dealing with a Republican House and Senate. If anything is going to get done in a second Obama term, then, it's going to get done primarily on conservatives' terms. The president knows that. He knows that gridlock doesn't do him any good. (Right now, he can use gridlock as a campaign theme--"do-nothing Congress," "we can't wait," and all that. In a second term, gridlock just means failure, lame duck status, and a diminished legacy.)
So, is there a big, legacy-making issue out there that's in the conservative wheelhouse, and on which Obama could possibly deal? Yeah, all the deficit and debt stuff--a balanced budget--long-term entitlement reform, etc.
Now, I know all of you will say, "Obama will NEVER make a deal on Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security." No? You think he's just going to kick the can down the road on that one, and (a) earn a reputation as yet another president who read his Kindle while the house burned down; and (b) sit back and wait for the day when the GOP actually DOES get the whole shooting match, and, unchecked by Democrats, makes much deeper cuts in entitlement programs than Obama himself would be prepared to accept?
If that's what you think, I think you are wrong. I think Obama will choose to be the guy who saved the New Deal and the Great Society--not to mention the country's financial future--by taming them.
Really, assuming a GOP Congress, what's the alternative?
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