Even if the House manages to pass a modified version of the Boehner 2 plan tomorrow (Boehner 3?), the Senate has already promised to kill it. Presumably, then, the Senate will pass a bill to the left of the House bill, and kick it back over to Boehner. But if the GOP caucus in the House can barely pass its own legislation (assuming it does), how is it going to sign off on something from a Democratic Senate?
I see only three answers.
First, it might not. Apparently, there are enough Republicans willing to take their chances on a short-term refusal to increase the debt limit that this might very well happen.
If you ask me, this is incredibly stupid economics and politics. But seeing as how we've never been in this place before, I could be wrong.
Second, it might not, and so John Boehner might cut a deal with House Democrats, bringing along only as many Republicans as are necessary to get the bill passed. One assumes that the vast majority of these Republicans will then face a primary challenge in 2012.
Third, having pushed the situation to the brink, and finding themselves out of time and out of options, House Republicans will hold their noses and vote for the bill that will have come over from the Senate (perhaps with an added fig leaf or two). This will rile up the Tea Party, but House members can say, "Look, we pushed this thing as far as we could and held out as long as we could. We could have caved early--and there was immense pressure to do just that--but we hung on, trying to force a better deal. Our game of chicken didn't work, so we voted to avoid default.* If you have a problem with that, then give us a Republican Senate and president next time."
I have my fingers crossed that Option 3 is the one that will go.
*Technically, we probably won't default; apparently, bond-holders will get paid first. It's really Social Security recipients, soldiers, people waiting on student loans, FBI agents, etc., who have to worry.
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