My storyline about the Republican primary campaign has, to this point, gone something like this:
1. Mitt Romney will get a lot of early votes, but not among social conservatives.
2. A social conservative candidate (Bachmann or Santorum) will get a lot of early votes, but not among traditional conservatives.
3. Seeing things develop as per items 1 and 2, a large chunk of Republican primary voters will look for a "fusion" candidate, one who can appeal to both traditional conservatives and social conservatives, one who does not have Romney's political flaws (Mormonism, vulnerability on healthcare, stiffness, reputation for flip-flopping), and one who isn't seen as a "Christian crazy."
To this point, I've said that the most likely fusion candidate is Tim Pawlenty.
But if Rick Perry gets in the race, he's instant fusion. That is, he can appeal to Christian conservatives, but, unlike Bachmann and Santorum, neither of whom has any meaningful executive experience, he can appeal to traditional conservatives as well (by running on his Texas record).
If this happens, you'll likely get an early split of voters between Romney and Perry. There will be no need for a fusion candidate...Perry's already it. So, it will be Perry vs. Romney, with people like Bachmann and Pawlenty hanging around only in the hopes of being somebody's running mate.
And who would win between Romney and Perry? If you assume equal resources and equal campaigning skill--about which I have no idea--then I think Perry wins. (Mainly because: (a) he doesn't have Romney's baggage, referenced above; and (b) he'll have a stronger regional base of support than Romney.)
But who knows? If Perry gets in the race, we'll be learning things about him that Perry himself doesn't even know. Think Willie Horton, Whitewater, DUIs, etc.
I'm interested in such offer,The sound quality in these podcasts is really poor. I feel bad about complaining about something that is free, but I think it is important.
Posted by: Timberland Shoes UK | March 13, 2012 at 10:19 PM