Is there a constituency for genuine conservatism?
I began to think of myself as a conservative in 1991, during my first year in graduate school. As I recall, my average income during six years of graduate school was about $15k/per year. I tell you this for one reason: so that you don't think my conversion to conservatism was based on self-interest, i.e., that I had a ton of money and bought into conservatism because I didn't want to pay taxes. If only!
At the same time, as a graduate student I had the luxury of embracing conservatism because it had no real bearing on my life. It didn't matter whether conservatives or liberals were in charge. I was going to be a poor graduate student for many, many years either way. My convictions didn't really require much courage.
Once I got out of graduate school, things changed. Specifically, I could see much more of a connection between state/federal policies and my own well-being. Generally, I saw an inverse relationship: the bigger/more intrusive government was, the harder it was going to be for me to get ahead and stay ahead.
That attitude, though, also seems a luxury. It's a luxury available to people who have reasons to believe they can make it without help from government. Reasons such as a college education (at least), or specialized skills, or a knack for entrepreneurial success, or inherited money. And how many people have such reasons? One-fourth? One-third?
Whatever the exact number, I'd have to guess that it's far from a majority. Furthermore, there are plenty of people who do have such reasons who nonetheless are not conservatives. Recognizing this, is there any reason to believe that conservatism in America will ever achieve a long-term governing majority?
Footnote: I should note that I have other reasons for embracing conservatism aside from its relationship to my perceptions of self-interest. I emphasized self-interest above, though, because I think it's going to be very hard for conservatism to win a sustainable majority as long as people are anxious about their ability to thrive without government assistance.
Anklenote: Here's another twist--"I can take care of myself, but there's no way I can manage that AND take care of my elderly parents/sick child/drug-addicted sibling."
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