Early predictions for an Obama presidency

So, let's say Barack Obama wins the election on November 4th. What's going to happen after that?

Let me toss a few thoughts out there for you.

First, I think he's going to follow a much different foreign policy from the one he has advertised during the campaign. I do NOT think he will be sitting down, without preconditions, with assorted dictators. I do think, however, that he may sit down with them WITH preconditions...or engage them without preconditions at a level lower than the office of the presidency. I expect, too, that he'll devote special attention to Middle East peace. This is an area in which people generally expect the U.S. to be involved (especially the brie and Chablis crowd), in which you can make some progress even as a novice, and in which no one will blame you if you fail. Plus, it's an area that plays to Obama's conceit that any problem can be solved if we just make a good-faith effort to really talk to each other, and really listen. Finally, I expect much more of a real-politik approach in foreign affairs than what you might fear. In the primaries, and even to a certain extent in the general election campaign, Obama has had to keep the moveon.org crowd happy. Come next January, though, he will be president of the whole country, not just the Daily Kos kooks. That, I think, will mean a much more militarily aggressive, much less humanitarian, much more interventionist foreign policy than the one he has been talking about over the past few months.

On health care, I don't think we'll get any sort of fundamental overhaul of our system. There are still too many vested interests who will fight that. Instead, we'll have more creeping statism...expansions in Medicaid, S-CHIP, Medicare, and other government-sponsored health programs that will get us closer to universal coverage but not nearly all the way there.

There will be some kind of tax increase in Obama's first term, but it will be considerably smaller than what he has proposed, and it will not result in a recession.

The Democratic Caucus in the House and Senate will ensure that Obama governs fairly far to the left in his first two years, which will result in some general public disenchantment, which in turn will mean big GOP gains in 2010.

Conservatives will find their voice again in opposition, which will get a lot of us excited about the prospect of another era of conservative governance, which excitement will then dissolve into crashing disappointment when we DO get our shot at governing again and realize, for the umpteenth time, that while a lot of American voters call themselves conservatives, they don't really support the ideas that conservatives find sexy (e.g., school choice, private Social Security investment accounts, selling the National Endowment for the Arts to Sweden, etc.).

Obama will be an extraordinarily political president, by which I mean he will not seek to rise above the fray in the style of Reagan, but will think of the world in "with us or against us" terms in the fashion of Clinton and Nixon, and will seek to put the screws to the "against us" crowd (rhetorically, I mean). The mainstream media will pretend to be repulsed by the pettiness of it all, but will cheer when they are sure no one is watching. Increasingly, no one will be watching, or reading.

In general, Obama's first few years will be like John Kennedy's or Bill Clinton's: amateurish in many respects, with minor accomplishments here and there, but also with a steadily increasing display of confidence and competence. By the time Obama is up for reelection, he'll finally be ready for the job. The media will fall out of love somewhere in the course of the first year--they'll realize that Obama is really NOT a transformational figure, but is instead a fairly conventional, if very talented, politician--but they'll fall back in love in time for the reelection campaign. Speaking of which, Obama's campaign in 2012 will comprise the second largest sector of the U.S. economy, finishing right on the heels of health care-related goods and services.

Possible surprises? I can think of a few. First, more Clintonian triangulation--that is, despite his instinctive liberalism, Obama seeks to pass himself off as the sensible center, holding off the GOP loonies to his right and the Democratic crazies to his left. Second, first-term entitlement reform. Third, the capture of bin Laden.

Thoughts? Predictions of your own? Fire away...

Comments

[Name:]

First-term mistakes are one category, how about first-day? As in Clinton's executive orders on the gays in the military and lifting ban on federal funding for abortions. Both were major policy actions and at least one really backfired.

I don't think his presidency will be much different than Bush's or Clinton's.

[Lehigh]

May be wishful thinking, but I don't think he's going to be more moderate than the House and Senate, and will try to keep them in line, to avoid a huge seat loss in 2010 (though I'm starting to think we're best off with a Repub house and Democratic Senate and pres).

[Special Agent Johnny Utah]

Why a GOP house only? Why not Democratic president and GOP House/Senate?

[Name:]

For the same reason that here in Arizona a narrow majority is actually pretty ineffective, because a couple senators ALWAYS cave in to the executive branch. Something about pet projects they've always wanted and now suddenly can get. Getting members of another chamber, especially the House, is another set of negotiations and the amount of tradeoffs will have to be greater. Plus, it's not really possible to "punish" a senator for jumping ship. In the House, members are at the mercy of leadership.

[Lehigh]

I erred in the previous post -- I think it should have been "I think he is going to be more moderate..." And keep in mind I'm a left-leaner, so I wouldn't want too much Republican power.

In any case, a Republican House b/c they originate appropriations bills and they wouldn't have an effect on judicial appointments (though I think Breyer is bad for the Supreme Court). Also, to Name's point, a Repub House would likely have a clear platform, unlike a Repub Senate.

I also think (anecdotally) divided government works best when there's division within the legislative branch, which will force more compromise than would a unified legislature vs. a pres of the other party.

[Nostra DamUs]

Obama pulls out troops from Iraq, leaving it in a state of turmoil. Al-Quida moves in causing chaos. Iran and Syria cannot stand the disruptions across their borders, and move into Iraq on the pretext of maintaining peace. Iraq splits into three territories occupied by Iran, Syria and the PKK. The fighting in the middle-east disrupts oil supplies and trade routes between the east and west. Shortage of oil raises prices and cause an economic slow down in the US leading to a recession. Fighting along the middle-east trade routes makes imports more expensive leading to inflation. The government of Obama is broke after bailing out Wall Street and is unable to do much to calm the economic crisis in this country. China, Russia and the rich oil sheiks of the middle east propose a bail out plan for the United States. After four years of havoc the american people have had enough of Obama's incompetence and are ready to get rid of of him. On the horizon is another Osama ready to stand for election / dictaorship. Only this time it's not Barak - BUT Bin-Laden!

[Laive]

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