When I saw the Post/ABC poll today that showed Obama with a 10-point lead, I let my imagination run wild. I thought to myself, "What if that holds up, and Obama goes on to win? Will we look back and think that the past two weeks cost John McCain the election?"
The failure of Fannie, Freddie, and various big name banks and insurance companies was a perfect opportunity for Sens. Obama and McCain to play president for a couple of weeks--to say and do the things that they might say and do if they were actually president. And if Sen. Obama's lack of experience was going to be a problem, this situation ought to have played to McCain's advantage.
And yet it did not.
Neither candidate was particularly impressive, but the more experienced guy--McCain--was the less presidential. He started out in a quasi-presidential mode, trying to be reassuring, saying that the fundamentals of the economy were strong. Then when the Obama campaign took advantage, McCain/Palin said, "No, you misunderstood. We know people are suffering. We were just saying that the American worker is strong."
Lame.
All that was required here was this: "Yes, I did say that. I said it because it's true. When we talk about the fundamentals of the economy, we're talking about things like inflation, interest rates, unemployment, our balance of trade, productivity growth, GDP growth, and so on. Nothing going on in any of these areas should give cause for alarm. Granted, there are parts of the economy and parts of the country that are in trouble. This has translated into some undeniable pain and suffering for many, many people. But we are not on the verge of any kind of economy-wide crisis. We need to address the areas of weakness, and we will. Soon. But we also need to acknowledge--and not interfere with--the areas of strength. Those areas of strength will carry us through. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just trying to scare you for their own political gain."
Then there was the whole "Chris Cox should be fired" thing. Again, stupid and unpresidential.
So today, finally, John McCain starts acting like a president. It's another shrewd, surprising move from a campaign that has already come up with more of these than anyone had a right to expect.
Footnote: I've assumed all along that Obama will win, and I continue to assume that. But this is kind of like watching the Cardinals play the Cowboys. You're pretty sure the Cowboys are going to prevail in the end, but it makes it more fun if the Cardinals can keep it close. I just want McCain to keep it close so that on election night there's still an outside chance.
Anklenote: Big upside for McCain here, in addition to looking like the statesman (suspending campaign/taking down ads), is that when an improved bailout package is agreed to, he can take credit for the improvements. If he's smart, he'll get Sarah Palin involved in the discussions and treat it as a joint effort: "Governor Palin and I were dissatisfied with the existing taxpayer protections in the bill, so we worked to secure an agreement on new language that requires..."
UPDATE: Dick Morris was just on Bill O'Reilly's show, and yeah, I know Morris is a McCain partisan, but he made a pretty good argument. He said McCain is going to go to Washington, D.C.; broker a deal (Morris thinks that the sticking point for the GOP is government control over CEO pay and golden parachutes, and he thinks that McCain will be able to bring his party around by saying, "look, you want to win this election or do you want to lose it?"); and show up for the debate with a deal in hand; having demonstrated that maybe he DOES know something about the economy and that he really DOES put country first...while Barack Obama is left on the outside of all of this, looking in, having spent the past two days doing the only thing he's really qualified to do, run for office.
We'll see...
Update footnote: well, it looks like Obama's gonna go too, so, nevermind.
Am I looking at this through a biased lens when I say it sounds more chickenhearted than statesmanlike?
Posted by: Lehigh | September 24, 2008 at 02:08 PM
I completely disagree with you here, SAJU.
I think it looks weak. I think it makes him seem less capable of handling this, and any potential future, crisis. I seems like a calculated, cheesy campaign stunt. There is nothing that he can do that he shouldn't be able to do while running a campaign, particularly if he has surrounded himself with a competent staff.
And just when does he intend to 'restart' his campaign? The economy isn't going to suddenly be roses and rainbows in a week..or a month...
Posted by: Vox | September 24, 2008 at 02:15 PM
I wouldn't say it's chickenhearted, Lehigh. If it's anything, I'd call it cynical. And it may be, but that doesn't mean it's a bad idea.
Inevitably, Vox, some people will react to it the way you have. It's not really intended for you, though...it's intended for undecided voters, and for recent converts to Obama who were driven into his camp by the shaky economy. I think the message they will get is not, "I can't walk and chew gum at the same time," but, "This is important enough that we need to put partisanship and campaigning aside for a few days and get a bipartisan deal done."
I'm sure they plan to restart the campaign once the outlines of an acceptable deal are in place...or if that seems a long way off, once McCain has had a chance to offer his three bullet points on what the plan MUST have in order for him to be able to support it.
Posted by: Special Agent Johnny Utah | September 24, 2008 at 02:28 PM
I think it's hard for any of us to put ourselves in the mind of an independent/undecided voter. But the image I get is of Rocky II, with Apollo Creed ducking a rematch with Rocky.
And I don't want to downplay what may end up crippling my retirement fund, but this "crisis" is not a crisis immediately felt by the American voter. Everything today seems pretty much like it did a week ago. So where is this "crisis"? (again, I think there is a crisis, but the question is, do most people feel like this is a terrible crisis that requires a suspension of a campaign). If, God forbid, there were another terrorist attack on US soil -- that's a crisis. If Iran nuked Iraq -- that's a crisis. If Brad and Angelina split up -- that's a crisis. But some problem with big banks going bankrupt? When most people alive never lived through the Depression? I don't think it's an immediately-felt crisis, which means most people will think McCain is looking for an excuse not to debate.
Posted by: Lehigh | September 25, 2008 at 06:33 AM
I think ducking the debate is the least plausible explanation for his behavior, for a few reasons. First, right now his campaign NEEDS this debate. He's had a lousy couple of weeks, and he needs to change the story line. Second, he should have every expectation of doing well in the debate. They're not going to be standing side by side, delivering scripted speeches off a teleprompter. It's an unscripted setting...a setting in which he has a lot more experience than Obama, and a much higher apparent comfort level. Third, a guy who spent 5.5 years in the Hanoi Hilton having his bones broken probably isn't the sort of guy to duck a debate.
Another interpretation of the whole thing: he decided that it was important to be in Washington, D.C. for the next couple of days. He knew this would cut into his campaigning and his debate prep time. He worried that Obama would continue campaigning and continue debate prep, gaining an advantage. Even so, he thought it was important enough to be there that he was willing to deal with the consequences. BUT, he saw a way of scoring some quick/cheap points on the way to D.C. by making this a matter of patriotism/honor for Obama.
Posted by: Special Agent Johnny Utah | September 25, 2008 at 08:13 AM
On his way to DC by way of the CBS Studios in New York City? I agree that it doesn't make sense that McCain would want to duck the debate. But that's certainly how it appears.
Unless this is all part of some plan to have the VP debate postponed and/or never held. It's always about Palin!
Posted by: Lehigh | September 25, 2008 at 08:27 AM
I can't believe it appears that way to many. "John McCain fears foreign policy debate with Barack Obama" sounds like a joke.
Posted by: Special Agent Johnny Utah | September 25, 2008 at 08:39 AM